{"id":8955,"date":"2025-03-11T22:50:18","date_gmt":"2025-03-11T21:50:18","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/serwisnaukowy.uw.edu.pl\/en\/?p=8955"},"modified":"2026-05-06T10:54:44","modified_gmt":"2026-05-06T08:54:44","slug":"how-to-predict-the-next-pandemic-can-scientists-foresee-the-future","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/serwisnaukowy.uw.edu.pl\/en\/how-to-predict-the-next-pandemic-can-scientists-foresee-the-future\/","title":{"rendered":"How to predict the next pandemic? Can scientists foresee the future?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n
What characterizes our common understanding of a map \u2013 namely the borders drawn on it, whether between countries, regions, habitats of plants and animals, or geographical zones \u2013 is essentially a convention agreed upon by people. For bacteria and viruses, however, as well as for the effects of climate change or many social processes, such boundaries simply do not exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Just as we can board a plane at Warsaw\u2019s Chopin Airport and wake up on the other side of the globe the next morning, pathogens and ideas move with equal ease. Both can spread in the blink of an eye.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In a world full of instant connections and rapid flows of information, processes occurring every fraction of a second create what seems like a chaotic mosaic. Can anything meaningful be extracted from all this noise? Yes \u2013 if it can be assembled into vast databases and analyzed using advanced mathematical tools. Scientists from the Interdisciplinary Centre for Mathematical and Computational Modelling at the University of Warsaw (ICM UW) are piecing together the fragments of this informational puzzle. Through collaboration, they believe it is possible to better prepare the world for the unknown.<\/p>\n\n\n\nSARS-CoV-2 coronavirus. Photo by Geralt\/Pixabay.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
What do the data reveal?<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
When Dr. Aneta Afelt of ICM UW looks at a map, boundary lines \u2013 even the seemingly obvious ones separating land and water \u2013 are simply cartographic symbols. In nature, she argues, such rigid divisions do not truly exist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe have grown used to thinking in terms of clearly defined borders between countries, cities, or regions. But in nature there are always transition zones and overlapping habitats. By studying them, we can understand the structure of ecosystems and predict the direction in which they may evolve. The dynamics of evolution \u2013 and sometimes revolution \u2013 are especially important when assessing epidemiological threats,\u201d she explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The scientist works within the One Health\/Planetary Health framework, which promotes a holistic understanding of health \u2013 encompassing humans, animals, and the broader socio-ecosystem. Global environmental problems influence both human well-being and the condition of the ecosystem balance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Interdisciplinary teams operating within this framework examine the interactions between social and natural environments, recognizing their deep interconnections and mutual dependencies. Infectious diseases \u2013 such as those caused by coronaviruses (including COVID-19) or influenza viruses, including avian influenza \u2013 often spread between species. Controlling them therefore requires cooperation among physicians, veterinarians, ecologists, and many other specialists.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Researchers from ICM UW collaborate in international interdisciplinary projects with epidemiologists, veterinarians, biologists, mathematicians, geographers, and experts from many other fields around the world. Together they collect data that help them better understand and anticipate potential threats. Recommendations and reports based on extensive databases and advanced computational analyses have proven remarkably accurate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For example, as early as 2017 \u2013 after analyzing coronaviruses found in bats in Laos and Cambodia, incorporating previously published data from across Southeast Asia, and examining the findings in the context of increasing anthropogenic pressure on the region\u2019s environment \u2013 researchers concluded that there was a very high risk of a new zoonotic coronavirus emerging in humans. They sounded the alarm in the journal Frontiers in Microbiology<\/em> in the article \u201c<\/em>Bats, Coronaviruses, and Deforestation: Toward the Emergence of Novel Infectious Diseases?\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n
During the COVID-19 pandemic, it later emerged that regional archives in Cambodia contained historical samples of bat coronaviruses closely related to the infamous virus identified in Wuhan. Unfortunately, the scenario outlined in the March 2018 publication became reality \u2013 much sooner than anyone had anticipated.<\/p>\n\n\n\nWe fell ill in waves \u2013 confirmed COVID-19 cases per million people (weekly average), data as of February 2, 2022. Source: ourworldindata.org.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
A message for the World<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
The One Health approach can be understood, in simplified terms, as the sum of interactions within a socio-ecosystem \u2013 an open system linking environmental and social conditions. From this perspective, our physical and mental well-being is directly associated to the quality of the environmental conditions around us.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In 2023, Dr. Aneta Afelt, together with colleagues from Brazil, the United States, and France, prepared a report examining disparities in access to green spaces in major Brazilian cities during the COVID-19 pandemic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cAnyone who lived through the pandemic in Poland remembers that even a small garden or access to a private balcony could bring relief during periods of self-isolation,\u201d the researcher notes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Most residents of Brazil\u2019s poorer metropolitan areas, however, did not have that luxury. The analysis shows that in slum districts \u2013 known as favelas \u2013 green spaces within the neighborhoods are virtually nonexistent. Every available patch of land is built up. Meanwhile, in districts inhabited by the middle class, urban conditions resemble the standards familiar from the streets of European capitals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What does this mean \u2013 and what challenges does it pose for us and for future generations?<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cA key takeaway from the study is that access to green spaces should be equal regardless of economic status. Developing green-blue infrastructure \u2013 which is already highly advanced in Europe, including many Polish cities \u2013 is one way of adapting to climate change. Vegetation and water alter the energy balance of urban areas, reducing thermal stress during heat waves. By lowering thermal pressure through these \u2018soft\u2019 methods, we also stabilize ecosystems for local plant and animal species for the next 50 to 100 years,\u201d the researcher explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A real-life example of how green and blue infrastructure can be applied to improve thermal comfort in urban areas is presented in a 2026 publication: Navigating the Interplay of Ecosystem Restoration, Climate Change, and Human Health: Addressing Challenges with a Case Study in Central Europe <\/em>[in:] Global Nexus Handbook<\/em>. Modelling for central Poland proves the possibility to decrease the perceived temperature by even 4 degrees, in addition to the mental health benefits of green spaces.<\/p>\n\n\n\nDaily confirmed new COVID-19 cases, 7-day average. Data for Poland, January 9, 2020\u2013February 23, 2025. Source: ourworldindata.org.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
The butterfly effect<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Dr. Afelt and her colleagues at ICM UW are currently involved in the international project MOSAIC (Multi-site Application of Open Science in the Creation of Healthy Environments Involving Local Communities<\/em>).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The project aims to investigate the challenges and requirements of so-called cross-border communities \u2013 groups living far from administrative centers, often with complex ethnic identities and limited access to institutional support.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
One example is the Maasai, who live along the Kenya\u2013Tanzania border. They are currently undergoing a profound cultural transformation \u2013 shifting from a traditional nomadic lifestyle to permanent settlement. What took centuries to evolve in Europe is happening among the Maasai within just one or two generations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
This transformation brings both challenges and opportunities. On the one hand, fencing off the savanna disrupts animal migration routes, while intensive <\/s>agriculture contributes to groundwater pollution. On the other hand, a settled lifestyle offers easier access to health care and access to educational opportunities, including for girls and women.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The challenges faced by the Maasai may seem distant. Yet in today\u2019s hyper-globalized world, distance matters less and less. We are all experiencing change. From the perspective of Central Europe, these transformations may appear slower, but they are no less real \u2013 just consider the growing pressure of climate change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Research conducted by scientists at ICM UW is not only about detailed analyses and recommendations. Above all, it is about knowledge. In an era of rapid change, understanding the dynamics of ongoing processes and their likely consequences can prove \u2013 quite literally \u2013 life-saving.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\u201cWe are living in a new geological epoch \u2013 the Anthropocene \u2013 an era defined by humanity\u2019s influence on Earth\u2019s ecosystems. Processes that begin locally do not remain local for long; they quickly become global. Take COVID-19 as an example. The first major outbreak was identified in Wuhan. Symptoms typically appear about five days after infection with SARS-CoV-2. A flight from Wuhan to Warsaw takes about 17 hours. Someone conducting business in Wuhan \u2013 unaware of the epidemiological situation and exposed to the virus \u2013 could return home to Warsaw and begin infecting family members, friends, and acquaintances. They would not even have had the chance to recognize the danger, because at that early stage the epidemic had not yet been officially identified. This is the latent phase of an epidemic, when infected individuals remain invisible to the health-care system,\u201d the researcher explains.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Thanks to large international collaborations and interdisciplinary approaches, scientists can now produce forecasts with a high degree of accuracy. These forecasts form the basis for models and policy recommendations. Whether we choose to act on them, however, ultimately depends on the implementation of knowledge \u2013 by policymakers and by society as a whole.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
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